NFL Betting

Everybody has a friend whose betting strategy is simple as it is stupid: lay chalk across the board. He tries to convince you taking USC -45 more than Washington State may be the lock of the week despite the truth that the Trojans have yet to cross the 30-point barrier all period. The Yankees at -325 with CC on the mound? No problem, the Yanks have won nine straight! You neglect to inform him he hasn’t carried out his homework because the Evil Empire clinched the night before and is starting their AAA lineup behind Sabathia. Occasionally these chalk bettors just need to discover a lesson. Now you need to lend this chump buffet cash for the rest of the trip simply because he forgot the quantity one sports handicapping rule: do not fall in love with favorites.

Laying chalk is really a strategy oddsmakers simply countered with inflated spreads, run/pucklines (my obligatory hockey shout out for the year) and severely juiced moneylines. In a sport like baseball, the best group generally hovers around a .600 winning percentage so why danger getting any team at higher than -150? The only worth you are able to discover right here is creating your personal teaser or parlay, and well, we all know how that goes. (link to last entry right here)

This leads us to the 2009 NFL period. In my season opening blog at Coopers Sports Picks and not a fish weblog, I did my best to steer anybody who works difficult for their money as far away from the No Fun League as feasible. That was prior to weeks 1-7 proceeded to destroy my “NFL is the ideal parity machine” theory. This season has officially mutated into a chalk bettor’s heaven. The big dogs (Saints, Giants, Colts) are covering double-digit spreads with ease. This past week we saw favorites go 9-2-1 with six teams covering a touchdown or larger spread. Every week the sharps have warned Joe Public how the all-knowing oddsmakers will even out this quantity with painful results for those who choose to jump about the chalk bandwagon. The result? We’re 1 week aside from mid-season and also the favorites just keep on rolling. A fourth-quarter Saints flurry to erase a 21-point deficit over the Dolphins guaranteed that the NFL would have three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) heading into week eight for that very first time in league background. Obviously the Football odds are where they are at for a cause and clearly, we are on unprecedented ground with this trend.

Enough crying. What can we do about this?

Pay close attention to scheduling. Numerous teams are entering the teeth of their division schedules. Look for worth in the underdogs within the tougher divisions (AFC East/North, NFC East) in interdivision games. Division play functions much more familiarity in between coaching schemes, similar pace, and much less travel. You can worry much less about a jetlagged teams history in mountain-central time or how a southern group will handle sleet and opposing fans’ snowballs as soon as they are playing the majority of their remaining games within their division.

Stay away from heavy road chalk. Everybody is nicely aware that big road favorites are covering at record pace this season but remember again we’re entering division play where double-digit blowouts are rare. The majority of road blowouts this period haven’t happened in conventional matchups, they’ve happened in as soon as each and every five year matchups for example the Giants-Bucs, Saints-Bills, Jets-Raiders. Create a tier-system for teams. Teams ranked in the lowest tier (Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Browns) qualify as candidates to risk large spreads against in the correct situation. Mid-tier teams (Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks) who have faced a brutal 1st half schedules warrant strong consideration if they are obtaining points against top-tier teams, especially when they’re at house. For that record, I’m willing to wager my lunch money that the Titans finish .500 or better the second half of the period.

Finally, don’t read as well a lot into the chalk trend. Focus on individual matchups and crunch numbers instead. Some weeks you will come up with more favorites, others you will have a stable of dogs. Either way, make certain you’re picking based on your research instead of blindly following a trend or gut feeling.

I know this period has thrown our chalk loving friends a slow fastball down the middle. We may be even be questioning our personal time consuming study and thinking about abandoning discussion with fellow handicappers in the forums. Resist the urge to switch horses midstream. There’s lots of football left to be played. Do not neglect every dog has his day.

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